Understand the market
Every YES/NO share is an implied probability. Your job is to decide whether the market price is wrong after fees, spread, and timing.
2026 edition
The PolyDeck Prediction Market Blueprint
Adapted into a safer research system: understand the market, build a thesis, size risk, and track outcomes. This is decision support, not financial advice.
Set up your research desk
Use screenshots, market links, a watchlist, primary sources, and a journal before putting money behind a thesis.
Pick one of six strategies
News latency, resolution-source work, cross-market gaps, microstructure, smart-wallet study, or calibration models.
Control risk first
Cap exposure, avoid wide spreads, require a source, and define the point where your thesis is invalidated.
Practice before going live
Paper trade recurring markets and compare your forecast against the close. Track Brier score and notes, not just wins.
Review weekly
Keep what is repeatable, cut what was luck, and avoid scaling until the process survives different market types.
Launch roadmap
Week 1
Use Analyzer, paper trade, journal every decision.
Week 2
Build category watchlists and compare with public trader activity.
Week 3
Add CLOB snapshots, spreads, midpoint, and price history.
Week 4
Ship alerts and confidence scoring with strict risk language.